While the rest of US enjoy the holidays the budget nomes at OMB are doing their thing having given the departments and agencies pass backs on their budget requests for Fiscal Year 2013 that begins October 1st of 2012. This could be the last budget submission of any Obama Administration ever and if the Republicans win or lose it probably is dead on arrival when transmitted with the State of the Union Address or shortly thereafter in early February. So why is in even being submitted? Well for one thing required by law. For another serves as a marker for all the debates and appropriations efforts to follow. And finally it does to some degree reflect how the Administration sees the world and its own role in world and US history.
Most of FEMA budget is in the 045 category of fiscal codes--meaning state and local support. Most of the rest of DHS is in other fiscal codes. For example, General Government is fiscal code 800. It is hard to get ahold of how these assignments are made but they often foreshadow problems to come. For example, when Civil Defense left the 050 national security budget and became part of 045 it ended its role as being of any interest at all to the Armed Services Committees or the Armed Services Appropriators. Until 1995 FEMA always had one or two Associate Directors whose Senate confirmation ran through the Armed Services Committee. Once that stopped with repeal of the Federal Civil Defense Act of 1950, Public Law 920 of the 81st Congress, DoD pretty well shrugged its shoulders on FEMA issues, and did learn from the 1992 LA riots not to federalize the NG for riots and civil disorders. In another blog I have recently argued that the real state role of the NG is in law enforcement for the Governors in riots and civil disorders and that the current lack of training of the NG for that role is dangerous. Others disagreed. See blog Sic Semper Tyrannis.
In recent blog posts here and elsewhere I have argued that in fact the EM community is small and growing smaller. Even the rest of the PUBLIC SAFETY budgets are in danger of full scale erosion with over 500,000 State and Local workers laid off many in the Public Safety arena. Now FEMA has take a huge hit, over $2 billion IMO, to its support for the STATES and their local governments first response community. This is enough to make it almost certain that some capability will not be just lost now but forever.
With over 100 declarations in CY 2012 by the President for disasters, an all-time high, is part of this reflection of diminished STATES and their local government capability? DoD really does not care what happens to STATES and their local governments just hoping to be kept out of their problems. That is why on base housing and schools is such a big issue. Isolation from the General Public is a conscience DoD strategy for both force protection and ensuring that the Armed Forces are not burdened with the problems of STATES and their local governments.
In the meantime, I understand the OMB passback on the FEMA budget was devastating reflecting a definite change in policy by the President with respect to FEMA. Not the least the Presidential deferrment of construction money for FEMA at St. Elizabeths. So far only the US Coast Guard and the DHS support staff locked in for that location.
The bottom line--stand by for an absolutely amazing State of the Union address as the President sallies forth to meet the voters in the fall. None seem happy with current disaster policy or the NFIP either in FEMA or Congress or the Administration. The result could be dramatic in 2012.
Showing posts with label Appropriations. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Appropriations. Show all posts
Monday, December 19, 2011
Monday, November 22, 2010
DHS & FEMA FY2011 Appropriations
Probably repeating unnecessarily but the Continuing Resolution for the bulk of the Executive Branch runs out on December 3, 2010. As the Duke of Wellington was quoted on teh Battle of Waterloo and the final defeat of Napoleon he supposedly stated "It was a close run thing"!
While I have no inside information I am predicting an extension until early March for the next CR while some think it will be for the entire year. If it is the latter the benefit is that the departments and agencies will have some certainty over their FY 2011 appropriations. Unfortunately it also continues an often abberational OMB to have the whip hand over actual governance and spending by the agencies. And a reminder that Peter Orzarg (sic) Obama's OMB Director left in August and his replacement was only just confirmed by voice vote late Thursday by the Senate-Jack Lew! Well be that as it may the first week of December or even on the Friday after Thanksgiving a lot of bureacrats Turkey Day gets spoiled by so-called "pass backs" from OMB on the departments and agency requests for their FY 2012 appropriations. Then of course they are various appeals which in the main fall on deaf ears at OMB and the departments and agencies then prepare the paper work for the President's budget submission around the time of the STATE of the UNION address. That usually occurs in late January. While the Congress technically reconvenes on January 3, 2011, my understanding is that actual legislative work will not begin until sometime between the 11th and 18th.
By the time this forthcoming STATE of the UNION address is given we will as a country have great insight as to whether the US is getting the governance it needs even while it continues to wage war overseas. This is starting to look like the political realignment I have long predicted, starting about 1990, and briefly postponed by both the invasion of Kuwait, and the events on and following 9/11/01 are about to be realized perhaps even in this decade.
While not an expert I would no longer review the national political scene based on RED STATE/ BLUE STATE voters but instead on the beliefs of the Congressional delegations from each state. With the reapportionment necessitated by the 2010 Decennial Census as mandated by the Constitution there will continue to be a shift in political power from the Northeast and Midwest to the South and West. Thus I continue to discount the political staying power in Presidential politics except for anomolies like Barack Obama of potential new candidates from the Northeast or Midwest.
Thus, I would look to the relative economic decline in the South and West, including factors such as foreclosures, as generating more radical political beliefs that could well lead the US into some rather odd politics for the next decade.
One of the most unusual sitations in US political life is the now almost total withdrawal of moderate black politicians and the vast majority of black voters from either running for office and/or voting. This phenomenon if my guess is accurate is based on both frustration, education, and economics but is looking like a potential death knell for traditional Democratic leadership until the largely Democratic HISPANIC vote swells even more by the next census and more HISPANICS vote.
It does appear that WHITE VOTERS are the bulk of the independents and we have the WAPO reporting that 57% of eligible White voters voted for McCain/Palin in 2008. Black turnout in Presidential elections, normally 4-7% of the eligible black voters, rose to a record 16% in 2008 with perhaps as many as 95% of black voters supporting President Obama. That turnout and voting pattern does not look likely in 2012 so that leaves the DEMS in the lurch for turnout, reapportioned seats, and even their larger number of Senators up for re-election in 2012.
So how does this impact FEMA and DHS and their appropriations outlook. I have long argued that staying out from under CRs was the one saving grace for DHS. It gave that department at least some guidance and support for a difficult birth and initial operation. That now appears to be a goner. I have recommended that HS and National Security become a single multiple year appropriation with the rest of the government aligned for appropriations in alternative years. Since the game in Washington since the Reagan Administration--who are your contractors?--has impacted Congressional committee assignments and campaign donations and even impacted Executive Branch reorganizations and realignments of jurisdictions--it now makes sense that each department and agency produce with the annual budget submission a list of all their contractors, the contracts, and the funding stream for these contracts. This would give Congress which wants the information anyway, and interested persons wondering about federal policies, programs, functions, and activities a clearer insight of who is fighting for what appropriation.
For example, the current roughing up of TSA and its procedures and equipment, has been largely driven by technology and the failure to humanize the human consequence of that technology. This failure was in part driven by DHS contractors for screening equipment although they would deny it.
And it looks like a number of FEMA programs directed to the FIRE SERVICE, STATES and their local governments, and preparedness generally are and will be threatened this decade. I argue that the best FEMA and DHS can hope for in their appropriations is to stay even with inflation--should there be any inflation as the FEDERAL RESERVE is hoping.
All in all we will know by EASTER whether the long term outlook for Homeland Security and Federal Emergency Management will remain stable or will suffer the slings and arrows of Congressional realignments and changes in membership.
A single event, Hurricane Katrina has now left the STATE level political situation in Louisiana largely in Republican hands for the first time since the Reconstruction Era. Incidents and events could well change the political situation in other geographic areas of the US. Time will tell.
While I have no inside information I am predicting an extension until early March for the next CR while some think it will be for the entire year. If it is the latter the benefit is that the departments and agencies will have some certainty over their FY 2011 appropriations. Unfortunately it also continues an often abberational OMB to have the whip hand over actual governance and spending by the agencies. And a reminder that Peter Orzarg (sic) Obama's OMB Director left in August and his replacement was only just confirmed by voice vote late Thursday by the Senate-Jack Lew! Well be that as it may the first week of December or even on the Friday after Thanksgiving a lot of bureacrats Turkey Day gets spoiled by so-called "pass backs" from OMB on the departments and agency requests for their FY 2012 appropriations. Then of course they are various appeals which in the main fall on deaf ears at OMB and the departments and agencies then prepare the paper work for the President's budget submission around the time of the STATE of the UNION address. That usually occurs in late January. While the Congress technically reconvenes on January 3, 2011, my understanding is that actual legislative work will not begin until sometime between the 11th and 18th.
By the time this forthcoming STATE of the UNION address is given we will as a country have great insight as to whether the US is getting the governance it needs even while it continues to wage war overseas. This is starting to look like the political realignment I have long predicted, starting about 1990, and briefly postponed by both the invasion of Kuwait, and the events on and following 9/11/01 are about to be realized perhaps even in this decade.
While not an expert I would no longer review the national political scene based on RED STATE/ BLUE STATE voters but instead on the beliefs of the Congressional delegations from each state. With the reapportionment necessitated by the 2010 Decennial Census as mandated by the Constitution there will continue to be a shift in political power from the Northeast and Midwest to the South and West. Thus I continue to discount the political staying power in Presidential politics except for anomolies like Barack Obama of potential new candidates from the Northeast or Midwest.
Thus, I would look to the relative economic decline in the South and West, including factors such as foreclosures, as generating more radical political beliefs that could well lead the US into some rather odd politics for the next decade.
One of the most unusual sitations in US political life is the now almost total withdrawal of moderate black politicians and the vast majority of black voters from either running for office and/or voting. This phenomenon if my guess is accurate is based on both frustration, education, and economics but is looking like a potential death knell for traditional Democratic leadership until the largely Democratic HISPANIC vote swells even more by the next census and more HISPANICS vote.
It does appear that WHITE VOTERS are the bulk of the independents and we have the WAPO reporting that 57% of eligible White voters voted for McCain/Palin in 2008. Black turnout in Presidential elections, normally 4-7% of the eligible black voters, rose to a record 16% in 2008 with perhaps as many as 95% of black voters supporting President Obama. That turnout and voting pattern does not look likely in 2012 so that leaves the DEMS in the lurch for turnout, reapportioned seats, and even their larger number of Senators up for re-election in 2012.
So how does this impact FEMA and DHS and their appropriations outlook. I have long argued that staying out from under CRs was the one saving grace for DHS. It gave that department at least some guidance and support for a difficult birth and initial operation. That now appears to be a goner. I have recommended that HS and National Security become a single multiple year appropriation with the rest of the government aligned for appropriations in alternative years. Since the game in Washington since the Reagan Administration--who are your contractors?--has impacted Congressional committee assignments and campaign donations and even impacted Executive Branch reorganizations and realignments of jurisdictions--it now makes sense that each department and agency produce with the annual budget submission a list of all their contractors, the contracts, and the funding stream for these contracts. This would give Congress which wants the information anyway, and interested persons wondering about federal policies, programs, functions, and activities a clearer insight of who is fighting for what appropriation.
For example, the current roughing up of TSA and its procedures and equipment, has been largely driven by technology and the failure to humanize the human consequence of that technology. This failure was in part driven by DHS contractors for screening equipment although they would deny it.
And it looks like a number of FEMA programs directed to the FIRE SERVICE, STATES and their local governments, and preparedness generally are and will be threatened this decade. I argue that the best FEMA and DHS can hope for in their appropriations is to stay even with inflation--should there be any inflation as the FEDERAL RESERVE is hoping.
All in all we will know by EASTER whether the long term outlook for Homeland Security and Federal Emergency Management will remain stable or will suffer the slings and arrows of Congressional realignments and changes in membership.
A single event, Hurricane Katrina has now left the STATE level political situation in Louisiana largely in Republican hands for the first time since the Reconstruction Era. Incidents and events could well change the political situation in other geographic areas of the US. Time will tell.
Saturday, September 18, 2010
End of FY 2010
Sometimes I intend to cover the basics of government as it currently operates. This probably will reveal many of my bias' as to getting the public the most for its investment of tax dollars.
What is the importance of a given FY [Fiscal Year] ending? Specifically grants and contracts must be obligated during a single year designated unless they are authorized to be obligated on a muliple year basis. The DRF [Disaster Relief Fund] is one example of funding that typically but not always is not restricted to any specific fiscal year. I have long advocated a two year budget for the federal government with the defense budget including DOE and VA and certain other programs, functions and activities being in one portion and the rest of the federal budget in another. This would allow better overall planning and administration but not lilely to happen anytime soon. The FY end on October 1st of each year was designed to deal with the inability of Congress to enact a budget by the July 1st date that ruled at one point. Again of course this year most of the federal government will be under a CR [Continuing Resolution} in a mere 13 days including today Saturday the 18th of September. Some might be surprised to learn that of those 13 days Congress will probably only be in legislative session for 6 or 7 days. Then off to campaign to elect the entirety of the HOUSE of REPRESENTATIVES and 37 new Senators or incumbents for the 112th Congress. Thus the prospects are for a CR that may last until Easter.
All grants and contracts not obligated this FY with FY2010 money are essentially lapsed monies so that a frenzy of activity will be taking place over the next 12 days by departments and agencies trying to minimize the lapse in budget execution authority and obligation authority. OMB of course is in the drivers seat anytime the departments and agencies are under a CR because they can force by failure to issue allocations the use of the lower of the SENATE or HOUSE Appropriations ceilings or last years appropriations ceilings as enacted into law.
At any rate don't ask why the lights are burning late this next two weeks because the procurement offices and grant awards offices are trying their very best to reduce amounts of any funds lapsing.
What is the importance of a given FY [Fiscal Year] ending? Specifically grants and contracts must be obligated during a single year designated unless they are authorized to be obligated on a muliple year basis. The DRF [Disaster Relief Fund] is one example of funding that typically but not always is not restricted to any specific fiscal year. I have long advocated a two year budget for the federal government with the defense budget including DOE and VA and certain other programs, functions and activities being in one portion and the rest of the federal budget in another. This would allow better overall planning and administration but not lilely to happen anytime soon. The FY end on October 1st of each year was designed to deal with the inability of Congress to enact a budget by the July 1st date that ruled at one point. Again of course this year most of the federal government will be under a CR [Continuing Resolution} in a mere 13 days including today Saturday the 18th of September. Some might be surprised to learn that of those 13 days Congress will probably only be in legislative session for 6 or 7 days. Then off to campaign to elect the entirety of the HOUSE of REPRESENTATIVES and 37 new Senators or incumbents for the 112th Congress. Thus the prospects are for a CR that may last until Easter.
All grants and contracts not obligated this FY with FY2010 money are essentially lapsed monies so that a frenzy of activity will be taking place over the next 12 days by departments and agencies trying to minimize the lapse in budget execution authority and obligation authority. OMB of course is in the drivers seat anytime the departments and agencies are under a CR because they can force by failure to issue allocations the use of the lower of the SENATE or HOUSE Appropriations ceilings or last years appropriations ceilings as enacted into law.
At any rate don't ask why the lights are burning late this next two weeks because the procurement offices and grant awards offices are trying their very best to reduce amounts of any funds lapsing.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)