There were some signs of intelligence from the panel of outsiders briefing the Senate Banking Committee tomorrow. But no real concensus except for a lengthy NFIP statutory extension. Not much in the way of intelligence expressed by the Senators themselves. Clearly the fact that the flood insurance program is drive by science and engineering and land use not insurance principles continues to escape most of the Committee.
And the NFIP officials continue to waste legislative opportunities to strengthen the NFIP. The GAO witness was equally unhelpful and wondering how this important federal program escapes from sophisticated analysis. Senator Vitter of Louisiana of course begged that this crucial program for Louisiana's survival be extended and made cheaper and broader as a relief program for that clueless state.
I now see why so few real reforms came out of the financial meltdown. This Senate Committee is just not smart people and a drag on the future of the USA.
Even the Homebuilders rep made nothing but special pleading trying to avoid tough enforcement by the feds, the states and the locals as if the developers had not been almost totally responsible for development of housing in substandard areas.
So the NFIP will be extended from its September 30th expiration and most of the effort to modify will be to study it more as if its problems are unknown to one and all.
The bottom line of course is that flood insurance and disaster outlays will be increasing not decreasing as STATES and their local governments continue to be grossly negligent in allowing unwise development.
There are solutions to the NFIP's problems but few understand them enough to articulate them and see their implementation. One key one of course would be to void all policies issued ab initio when determined post claim to be in violation of flood plain management regulations but give innocent homeowners the right to sue their community for damages for allowing such a violation to occur.
Thursday, June 23, 2011
NLE 2011 After Action Report
Readers of this blog may remember that I recommended cancellation of the NLE 2011 exercise or at least postponement because of the disasterous outbreak of tornadoes in April and May this year. The exercise was held and now it will be of interest to learn of the lessons captured and read any after action report.
The After Action Report is being prepared under the auspices of a former FEMA SES Gil Jamison who rose from the DAE cadre in Tropical Storm Agnes that occurred in 1972 and its aftermath to a position of power and influence in the Hurricane Katrina recovery operation. Gil was a protege of Bill Tidwell also a career SES and Acting Regional Director in many FEMA regions over his career and Chief of Staff under Director Julius Becton.
The demise of the relationship between Bill Tidwell and Director James Lee Witt had a direct impact on Gil but his career eventually found fruition in the disaster program in which he started out in a predecessor organization to FEMA, specifically HUD's FDAA (Federal Disaster Assistance Agency).
Oddly perhaps, the FDAA while it existed under President's Ford and Carter was the only time that it was led by someone that believed that disaster outlays should not be administered as a general relief program to eliminate economic distress but in fact to target assistance to not make the next disaster more serious. This was accomplished by its leaders Thomas Dunne and William Wilcox, two extremely capable administrators both of which should be given the benefit of a biography by some historian. Both were mentors which was always in the past and is currently a rare commodity in FEMA leadership.
Well looking forwards to any and all information released about NLE 2011. This is the exercise series replacing the so-called TOPOFF series. Hoping many senior officials in DHS and FEMA played the exercise just in case that play forecasts some event during the remainder of the Obama Presidency.
The After Action Report is being prepared under the auspices of a former FEMA SES Gil Jamison who rose from the DAE cadre in Tropical Storm Agnes that occurred in 1972 and its aftermath to a position of power and influence in the Hurricane Katrina recovery operation. Gil was a protege of Bill Tidwell also a career SES and Acting Regional Director in many FEMA regions over his career and Chief of Staff under Director Julius Becton.
The demise of the relationship between Bill Tidwell and Director James Lee Witt had a direct impact on Gil but his career eventually found fruition in the disaster program in which he started out in a predecessor organization to FEMA, specifically HUD's FDAA (Federal Disaster Assistance Agency).
Oddly perhaps, the FDAA while it existed under President's Ford and Carter was the only time that it was led by someone that believed that disaster outlays should not be administered as a general relief program to eliminate economic distress but in fact to target assistance to not make the next disaster more serious. This was accomplished by its leaders Thomas Dunne and William Wilcox, two extremely capable administrators both of which should be given the benefit of a biography by some historian. Both were mentors which was always in the past and is currently a rare commodity in FEMA leadership.
Well looking forwards to any and all information released about NLE 2011. This is the exercise series replacing the so-called TOPOFF series. Hoping many senior officials in DHS and FEMA played the exercise just in case that play forecasts some event during the remainder of the Obama Presidency.
Monday, June 13, 2011
NFIP Reform? NOT THIS YEAR!
Okay here is my take on NFIP reform efforts! THERE WILL BE NO REFORM THIS YEAR BUT A LENGTHY EXTENSION of the NFIP perhaps for 5 years. This is the fifth time in the 42 year history of the NFIP that reforms to improve the NFIP's policies and administration by statutory change will have been undercut by the programs lack of preparedness to take long-term advantage of congressional interest. The basic problem of course is that the NFIP is a land use not an insurance program.
My basic reform proposal that would infuriate the Banking Committees and would be to confine insurance availability to the 1% annual occurrence floodplain (the so-called 100 year base flood)!
THE REASON THE BANKING COMMITTEES SHOULD NOT BE THE OVERSIGHT COMMITTEES FOR THE NFIP IN CONGRESS IS THAT THEIR POLITICAL PRESSURE AND CONSTANT MANIPULATION OF THE PROGRAM TO PROMOTE THE BANKING AND HOUSING SECTORS AND LAND DEVELOPERS AND BUILDERS OPERATING IN HAZARDOUS AREAS HAS UNDERMINED THE PROGRAM AND THIS YEARS LEGISLATION WILL PROVE THIS CONCLUSION AGAIN.
W. Craig Fugate did pretty well in his House and Senate testimony but the NFIP is too counter intuitive a program to allow even someone with Administrator Fugate's background and knowledge to present the Congress with real choices. And clearly he is making legal issues out of many policy decisions that could be made under current law, probably in a decision to push accountability elsewhere as he constantly did in his Senate presentation where he often stated it was up to Congress to decide. He did not make recommendations in most instances as to what they should decide or even why their decision was necessary.
So while a long extension is helpful only very skilled and competent leadership of the NFIP and even WH level interest can save it from eventual elimination in the favor of "free" disaster relief with no mapping most if not all legislative changes this year in the Congress will undermine program solvency and result in increased disaster outlays.
Another key recommendation is to put not another insurance lawyer in charge of the NFIP but a STATE Flood Plain Manager.
For the Congress two new findings to the ones that already exist should be added.
First, mapping is the principal compliance tool of the NFIP!
Second, that the NFIP should cooperate, and collaborate to the extent possible with the Endangered Species Act of 1973!
One major error could be increasing the limits of coverage! This should be veto bait if the WH and FEMA understand the program!
My basic reform proposal that would infuriate the Banking Committees and would be to confine insurance availability to the 1% annual occurrence floodplain (the so-called 100 year base flood)!
THE REASON THE BANKING COMMITTEES SHOULD NOT BE THE OVERSIGHT COMMITTEES FOR THE NFIP IN CONGRESS IS THAT THEIR POLITICAL PRESSURE AND CONSTANT MANIPULATION OF THE PROGRAM TO PROMOTE THE BANKING AND HOUSING SECTORS AND LAND DEVELOPERS AND BUILDERS OPERATING IN HAZARDOUS AREAS HAS UNDERMINED THE PROGRAM AND THIS YEARS LEGISLATION WILL PROVE THIS CONCLUSION AGAIN.
W. Craig Fugate did pretty well in his House and Senate testimony but the NFIP is too counter intuitive a program to allow even someone with Administrator Fugate's background and knowledge to present the Congress with real choices. And clearly he is making legal issues out of many policy decisions that could be made under current law, probably in a decision to push accountability elsewhere as he constantly did in his Senate presentation where he often stated it was up to Congress to decide. He did not make recommendations in most instances as to what they should decide or even why their decision was necessary.
So while a long extension is helpful only very skilled and competent leadership of the NFIP and even WH level interest can save it from eventual elimination in the favor of "free" disaster relief with no mapping most if not all legislative changes this year in the Congress will undermine program solvency and result in increased disaster outlays.
Another key recommendation is to put not another insurance lawyer in charge of the NFIP but a STATE Flood Plain Manager.
For the Congress two new findings to the ones that already exist should be added.
First, mapping is the principal compliance tool of the NFIP!
Second, that the NFIP should cooperate, and collaborate to the extent possible with the Endangered Species Act of 1973!
One major error could be increasing the limits of coverage! This should be veto bait if the WH and FEMA understand the program!
Friday, June 10, 2011
WOW-W. Craig Fugate Gets IT--Disaster Relief and NFIP are INTERTWINED
The history of the NFIP and the disaster relief program are closely intertwined although neither program has ever been housed bureacratically in the same sub-agency organization. The objective of the NFIP is to reduce disaster outlays since 80% of all natural disaster outlays have historically been flood and hurricane related. The NFIP was started in part because damage from flood was an excluded peril from homeowners insurance coverage one it expanded beyond the peril of "fire" in the modern broad form policies. The original NFIP issued policy largely substituted the peril of "flood" wherever the 1041 NY Fire Policy read "Fire" as the covered peril. The result was an original concern of the property/casualty insurance underwriters that federal or state courts would expand the coverages under the fire policies and homeowners policies as they digested the new "flood" peril. This has not happened and will not.
AND ALWAYS REMEMBER THE NFIP IS A LANDUSE NOT AN INSURANCE PROGRAM!
The NFIP is up for an extension of its expiration date of September 30th of this year. I am flatly predicting a 5 year clean extension but the HOUSE has passed a version that expands coverage of te program, denigrates from the programs purposes, makes it more likely that the NFIP will not come close to solvency and in fact will become a futher drain on the federal fisc. The NFIP is in the whole about $18B largely due to Hurricane Katrina and due to expensive subsidies to the property/casualty industry that performs WYO services.
EVEN AT 42 YEARS THE NFIP IS AN EXPERIMENTAL PROGRAM AND THE PERIOD OF RECORD IS FAR TOO SHORT TO MAKE PREDICTIONS ON ITS PERFORMANCE AS OF TODAY!
What we do know is that "free" disaster relief as currently administered undercuts the purposes of the NFIP. The result is to create "free" NFIP insurance that will shift the forms of disaster relief but not solve the problems of increased outlays of disaster funds.
W. Craig Fugate seems to understand that while they related the NFIP and the disaster programs involve policy tradeoffs to avoid one adversely impacting on the outlays of the other---adversely impacting meaning increasing outlays of the other program when both theoretically are designed to work cooperatively.
FEW IN FEMA UNDERSTAND BOTH DISASTER RELIEF AND THE NFIP! After yesterdays performance in the Senate it is clear that Administrator Fugate does understand this which is a real accomplishment and almost the first to do sol.
The Senate acted serious about finding out more about the NFIP and Adminstator Fugate dodged many questions by offering his answers in writing in the future. Who knows if this will happen.
AT any rate it was good to see a largely substantive NFIP hearing even though the mapping program should be subject to oversight by the House and Senate Science Committees since the statutory mapping standard is to have the maps "Scientifically and technically correct"!
It was clear that neither Administrator Fugate, the Senators, or their staffs understood exactly what this standard means. And FEMA has frequently undermined this standard through its policy decisions and ignorance, even on its mapping staff.
NOAA should be charged by the PRESIDENT and assisted by NAS in examining comprehensively the NFIP mapping decision process to determine whether the standard is being met.
AND AFTER ALL AT THIS POINT THE MAPS OF THE NFIP ALSO ARE THE ENFORCEMENT ARM OF THE NFIP!
AND ALWAYS REMEMBER THE NFIP IS A LANDUSE NOT AN INSURANCE PROGRAM!
The NFIP is up for an extension of its expiration date of September 30th of this year. I am flatly predicting a 5 year clean extension but the HOUSE has passed a version that expands coverage of te program, denigrates from the programs purposes, makes it more likely that the NFIP will not come close to solvency and in fact will become a futher drain on the federal fisc. The NFIP is in the whole about $18B largely due to Hurricane Katrina and due to expensive subsidies to the property/casualty industry that performs WYO services.
EVEN AT 42 YEARS THE NFIP IS AN EXPERIMENTAL PROGRAM AND THE PERIOD OF RECORD IS FAR TOO SHORT TO MAKE PREDICTIONS ON ITS PERFORMANCE AS OF TODAY!
What we do know is that "free" disaster relief as currently administered undercuts the purposes of the NFIP. The result is to create "free" NFIP insurance that will shift the forms of disaster relief but not solve the problems of increased outlays of disaster funds.
W. Craig Fugate seems to understand that while they related the NFIP and the disaster programs involve policy tradeoffs to avoid one adversely impacting on the outlays of the other---adversely impacting meaning increasing outlays of the other program when both theoretically are designed to work cooperatively.
FEW IN FEMA UNDERSTAND BOTH DISASTER RELIEF AND THE NFIP! After yesterdays performance in the Senate it is clear that Administrator Fugate does understand this which is a real accomplishment and almost the first to do sol.
The Senate acted serious about finding out more about the NFIP and Adminstator Fugate dodged many questions by offering his answers in writing in the future. Who knows if this will happen.
AT any rate it was good to see a largely substantive NFIP hearing even though the mapping program should be subject to oversight by the House and Senate Science Committees since the statutory mapping standard is to have the maps "Scientifically and technically correct"!
It was clear that neither Administrator Fugate, the Senators, or their staffs understood exactly what this standard means. And FEMA has frequently undermined this standard through its policy decisions and ignorance, even on its mapping staff.
NOAA should be charged by the PRESIDENT and assisted by NAS in examining comprehensively the NFIP mapping decision process to determine whether the standard is being met.
AND AFTER ALL AT THIS POINT THE MAPS OF THE NFIP ALSO ARE THE ENFORCEMENT ARM OF THE NFIP!
Sunday, June 5, 2011
What FEMA DOES NOT DO and NEVER WILL!
Okay let's give GAO some help in their forthcoming FEMA study as part of review of DHS in its totality re: accomplishment of missions and goals assigned to it since its door opening on March 1, 2003!
First, FEMA never does technical response meaning monitoring and decontamination of HAZMATS!
Second, FEMA rarely gives guidance on how the STATES and their local governments (90,000+) should obtain technical assistance from other federal sources. Nor does FEMA indicate how technical guidance should be obtained from it in its programs, functions,and activities.
Third, FEMA does not publish any internal delegations so that outsiders can understand how its components relate to each other. All other federal Executive Branch components do this (in accordance with law)!
Fourth, FEMA has never completely or adequately explained the connection between the Robert T. Stafford Act and the Price-Anderson Act, nor does it understand the relationship if any. FEMA refused to answer questions posed by the Senate Homeland Security and Government Affairs Committee on how a FUKISHIMA style event would be handled in the USA!
Fifth! FEMA is not under the direct command and control of the WH during disasters. Nor has it explained whether it can separately contact the WH on a self-initiated basis with DHS approval!
Sixth! FEMA cannot self initiate (nor its OIG/DHS) audits or reviews of its major contractors.
Seventh! FEMA has not published a COG chain of succession for itself or its components.
Eight! FEMA has NO role in WMD prevention or response!
Nine! FEMA has no capability in Cyber Security issues and policies.
Tenth! FEMA can barely answer Congressional correspondence without contractoce! It relies on contractors to perform many inherently govenrmental functions like preparation of strategic plans.
More to follow!
First, FEMA never does technical response meaning monitoring and decontamination of HAZMATS!
Second, FEMA rarely gives guidance on how the STATES and their local governments (90,000+) should obtain technical assistance from other federal sources. Nor does FEMA indicate how technical guidance should be obtained from it in its programs, functions,and activities.
Third, FEMA does not publish any internal delegations so that outsiders can understand how its components relate to each other. All other federal Executive Branch components do this (in accordance with law)!
Fourth, FEMA has never completely or adequately explained the connection between the Robert T. Stafford Act and the Price-Anderson Act, nor does it understand the relationship if any. FEMA refused to answer questions posed by the Senate Homeland Security and Government Affairs Committee on how a FUKISHIMA style event would be handled in the USA!
Fifth! FEMA is not under the direct command and control of the WH during disasters. Nor has it explained whether it can separately contact the WH on a self-initiated basis with DHS approval!
Sixth! FEMA cannot self initiate (nor its OIG/DHS) audits or reviews of its major contractors.
Seventh! FEMA has not published a COG chain of succession for itself or its components.
Eight! FEMA has NO role in WMD prevention or response!
Nine! FEMA has no capability in Cyber Security issues and policies.
Tenth! FEMA can barely answer Congressional correspondence without contractoce! It relies on contractors to perform many inherently govenrmental functions like preparation of strategic plans.
More to follow!
Saturday, June 4, 2011
GAO Study
The General Accountability Office (GAO) will conduct an entrance interview on June 17th to DHS and FEMA kicking off a study of how DHS and FEMA (and other DHS orgs) have attempted to and hopefully accomplished their assigned statutory missions since the events of 9/11/01! The report will be issued on September 10th, 2011.
I would argue that DHS, FEMA, and other orgs, have totally failed to handle the WMD assignment, the Cyber Security (CIP) assignment, and the Domestic Intel (together with privacy, civil liberties) assignment!
My conclusions reflect the reports of GAO itself and numerous other THINK TANKS!
It should also be noted that a slug of books and articles will be appearing after July 4th on the events of 9/11/01, and efforts successful and failed to adjust to those events since that date!
Two failed efforts that will be discussed are the failures of the FBI and the continued lack of interoperability of First Responders!
Good luck to all!
I would argue that DHS, FEMA, and other orgs, have totally failed to handle the WMD assignment, the Cyber Security (CIP) assignment, and the Domestic Intel (together with privacy, civil liberties) assignment!
My conclusions reflect the reports of GAO itself and numerous other THINK TANKS!
It should also be noted that a slug of books and articles will be appearing after July 4th on the events of 9/11/01, and efforts successful and failed to adjust to those events since that date!
Two failed efforts that will be discussed are the failures of the FBI and the continued lack of interoperability of First Responders!
Good luck to all!
Thursday, June 2, 2011
Where Have I Been? Thinking!
All good think tanks should spend time thinking! So over the last two weeks recharged the batteries and thinking! Watched the series "The Tudors" largely about Henry the VIII who like his cousin the French King died of end stage syphillis. Hey the Queens that lost their heads maybe lucky!
So a study in power and corruption! When in doubt lop off a few heads.
FEMA leadership keeping its head down and working hard! Yesterday hurricane season opened for 2011! Whatever happens this year will control FEMA's fate in my opinion for 2012 and beyond. REASON is simple! Little but outside events even happen to an administration in an election year with the WH and the Executive Branch paralyzed by the need to project the illusion of control.
So now events are in the saddle! As perhaps they always are in fact!
Again GOOD LUCK FEMA in all your endeavours!
So a study in power and corruption! When in doubt lop off a few heads.
FEMA leadership keeping its head down and working hard! Yesterday hurricane season opened for 2011! Whatever happens this year will control FEMA's fate in my opinion for 2012 and beyond. REASON is simple! Little but outside events even happen to an administration in an election year with the WH and the Executive Branch paralyzed by the need to project the illusion of control.
So now events are in the saddle! As perhaps they always are in fact!
Again GOOD LUCK FEMA in all your endeavours!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)