Well another Continuing Resolution on Appropriations looks likely extending FY2011 funding through December 17th. After that who knows but I am still predicting a CR through the end of March 2011. Also an needed increase in the federal debt ceiling and thus borrowing authority also looking likely at that time.
So what can the world of HS/EM anticipate in 2011 laying the principle groundwork for a 2012 Presidential election. Probably Washington will operate even in 2011 as though the Presidential election in 2012 is the be all and end all for the Washington centric view of the world that dominates that international capitol. Money of course will continue to flow to determine events that perhaps ultimately are beyond the ken of mankind. Washington will continue to fail to develop sinews of preparedness for the challenges that await US.
So to toss out some raw meat here are some VLG guesstimates of events outside of the US and internally that could change the way the dice are thrown.
1. Fidel Castro's and Raul Castro's Cuban tour of duty will end throwing US/Cuban policy of half a century into disarray as Cubans in Cuba strive to enter the US.
2. The collapase of Haiti as an independent entity will result in the US intervention on a long term basis in that supposed nation-state.
3. Mexico will elect a new President that will be extremely anti-American and become a magnate for anti-Americanism. But the Mexican economy will boom driven by CHINESE FDI.
4. Brazil will assert itself as the dominant nation-state south of the Rio Grande and this change will become permanent. Destruction of the gangs in Rio and Sao Paolo to make way for World Cup and Olympics will finally bring centralized power to that huge nation.
5. Spain will enter a depression together with Ireland, Greece, and Portugal as the Germans and their protectorate FRANCE together try and lead the EU into the future through their economic dominance.
6. Putin and Russia will be the first country to enter the EU or make a start towards it in 2011 including joint war fighting capability. Why? Han Chinese and Siberian resources.
7. Japan will renounce its treaty relationships with the US.
8. China will enter N.Korea and forge a protectorate with that nation-state. Then it will proceed in its efforts to tie Japan and S.Korea more tightly to China.
9. The beginning of the end of an indepentent democratic nation-state known as Taiwan will occur as it once again becomes a province of the Mainland.
10. The US will again fritter away its efforts on meaningless foreign policy and foreign interventions. But increasingly the role of the US in the Western Hemisphere will be challenged by Mexico and Brazil. The US will become to lose its dominance in the Western Hemisphere.
11. CANADA and the US will be challenged directly by Russia over rights to the Arctic.
12. Several large cities in the US will be effectively bankrupt and will require national level intervention.
13. The Obama Administration will prepare for its end by announcing major reforms of US governance including perhaps recommending a Constitutional Convention with limits on its jurisdiction all of which will go no-where.
14. Obama will soon be operating as a lame-duck President making the US a danger to itself and the world as its politics become even more flaky.
15. The economic performance of the US will be revealed to be a W shaped recovery and not a U shaped recovery.
16. The banks and FIRE sector will be back at the government feeding trough by the end of 2011 and the Obama Administration will again feed it sounding its own death knell by this time next year.
16. An unusal period of challenge to US positions and interests will occur as the continued leakage of sensitive information by WikiLeaks and more skillful terrorist application of bombs continues to degrade the respect of the rest of the world given to the US.
17. China will face a direct and vicious challenge to the Communist leadership. Perhaps precipitated by natural disaster response.
18. A US Aircraft carrier will be sunk by an unknown nation-state or non-state actor.
19. The US Congress will reach an all-time low in governance capability.
20. Two new flavors of ice cream will show up and eventually overtake vanilla and chocolate in popularity.
An early Happy New Years!