Thursday, July 8, 2010

Going Out on a Limb!

Okay knowing little but at least and interested spectator. Here goes! First the Obama Administration has placed its bets on the survival long term of BP and its minions. Whatever the actual facts in the GOM! Why? My guess is poltical calculations and contributions and maybe even flat out corruption. A true innocent of an appointee was sacrificed at the MMS to feed the frenzy of the Witch Hunters which has now apparently ended as both the Administration and BP move on. Did you know that BP will only start funding the $20B escrow account starting with a $3B payment this CY quarter? And after another slug next quarter will fund the fund at about $1B at most a quarter until the end of 2013. Well BP is spinning that it is not looking for asset buyers but reassuring its investors by the various trips Tony Hayward is making globally. Turns out relieved of day-to-day duties in GOM so he could reassure investors. My guess is that BP will not survive this event. So only time will tell on that standpoint. If it does survive then we know for sure that complicity of the Adminstration was the principal reason.
And as in the Haiti Earthquake where the US pretended from the beginning that there was an operating government, which there is not, that paradigm will result directly in Haitian deaths, perhaps in thousands by Labor Day.
So we do know now that the administration is extremely capable of making decisions, bad decisions on almost no real information, and no wonder BP stock is climbing rapidly.
My guess is that when the feds finally look to filing lawsuits BP will not even be named. No in fact its indemnification clauses with other culprits in the GOM catastrophe will in fact be only litigated much later in time when all the other litigation is over and done with. An excellent discussion of the whole GOM activity and various reports is covered in RECOVERY DIVA blog by Claire B. RUBIN.

Because of that I will avoid blogging on BP until after Labor Day. Hey by that time the relief wells are supposed to have been finished and of course the spin will be that the crisis has ended. Don't think so.