Well back on October 21st my last blog on current events looks pretty respectable to me in role of Nostradomus even now. Perhaps eye of the beholder.
But as November ends and Turkey, Dressing, and Cranberry start to wear off and allow mind to focus I thought some quick thoughts on current events might just be appropriate. I did of course post a quick take on the elections and issued guidance for the DEMS, the GOP, and the TEA Party post election. So here goes. Listed items not necessarily in importance to the long term but order established based on my current mood.
1st! HAITI! Well the cholera outbreak establishes conclusively the failed domestic and international effort over the course of the year in HAITI. Still no operating large-scale water and sewage treatment plants in HAITI and NONE, repeat NONE on the horizon. This shows the complete lack of understanding of how important infrastructure or the lack thereof is to HAITI. What did the US Marines do in their early 20th Century occupation of Haiti accomplish--in addition to security they built a great deal of infrastructure. A history largely unrecorded. And now of course do to US direct and indirect interferance in the election of a new Haitian President the election last weekend has turned into another new catastrophe for HAITI. This large-scale humanitarian disaster is a leading "black spot" on the Obama Administration and the Clinton dynamic duo. They just don't get "it" and "it" of course is an effort by the US to give destroyed countrys without effective government what they need and not just provide ground rules for futher corrupt exploitation by the US business interests and NGO community. The failure of many NGO's to pass on to HAITI their received contributions from the American public is criminal in scope and this includes the American Red Cross.
2nd. Iraq! Well we have the outlines of a government in Iraq that by Labor Day 2012 will have brought Iraq a new period of civil war and instability to that war wracked nation. Its 6 million refugees will not be returning to rebuild the country. Even with the crippling lack of governance and a balanced economy oil wealth will make Iraq a playground for economic exploitation for many years and eventually by the middle of this century again the dominant military power in the local region. The US as I have predicted in the past will not save the corrupt Kuwait monarchy this next time.
3rd. The wikileaks! This classified and unclassified cables reveal to me not skill but almost total lack of competence in the diplomatic community that are the largest source. My guess is lack of knowledge of languages and culture of their assigned countries is one major reason. The second which took some time for me to understand is that the cables reveal that the US conducts its diplomacy largely as it does it domestic policy. Relying on direct and indirect tools of corruption to achieve its aims.
4th. Congressman Issa! His efforts areto give the OIG's broad authority to subpoena documents from their agencies, ven beyond criminal investigations. These largely toothless tigers [the OIG's] usually are divided into audit, inspection and compliance groups but have never had the tools needed to do the job. This would be a dramatic increase in their authority. And in helping draft the OIG act in the mid seventies my arguments for the OIGs to have broad authority might finally come to fruition. So good luck Congressman ISSA!
5th. The LameDuck Session. As predicted in October this is rapidly becoming a disaster for the DEMS. The new Congress which will start real work on the 12th of January will be something to watch. If a trend can be followed todate it is for GOP Members of Congress, whether or not they gained TEA PARTY support to repudiate the contributions of the TEA PARTY to their election or re-election. Fun to watch but very serious business for both GOP and DEMS. Not so much for TEA Party members since their real role in the 112th will be to point out the absurd policies in many cases of the GOP and DEMS. Whether Sarah Palin runs or not as I predicted some time ago, this GAL is not going away.
6th. Obama as Warrior! Still unknown but I might have been more impressed if he had inflicted a twelve stitch wound on his basketball opponents as opposed to needing the stitches! Hey he may as well go down fighting as his time and office passes the half-way mark.
7th. Ireland. Well the handling of this country by its leaders and the EU is a joke to me. Ireland with its repudiation of the EU treaty and then adoption got what it deserved. A lack of seriousness in its people and leadership and of course setting the stage for a new Irish dispora in the 21st Century. Of course with no smoking in IRISH bars perhaps that is another reason that Ireland will make nice to those tourists arriving with hard cash and in the face of all those highly qualified POlISH PLUMBERs returning home.
8th. China. Playing its cards nicely and close to the vest. Letting N.Korea teach lessons to the S.Koreans and US even as it benefits from the turmoil. Well there be war? No way but their could be if China decides NOW what its future policy on the Koreas will be and invades now. Would be interesting to see US and S. Korean and Japanese reaction to that event if it happened.
9th. The FED. Again the Federal Reserve through its rulemaking authority is voting to protect a bankrupt banking sector. The dirty secret is that commercial real estate loans are as much underwater as the residential loans. And of course with no international capital controls the US remains the bastion of the hedge fund maruders who pay less than they should on personal income taxes and are still even after the financial reform bill largely unregulated. WOW nice job Barney Frank, Congress, and Administration. And Treasury Secretary's constant announcement that US wants a strong dollar just continues to undermine his and US credibility since US policy is exactly the opposite.
10. Holiday SALES as indicator of recovery. Well one of the great secrets is that the entirety of the retail economy is well under 4% of GDP. As opposed to the FIRE sector a three times that level. Even a great holiday season will not move the GDP towards faster growth. It does appear some growth in the economy but the corruption in CPI and other government statistical work makes it unlikely anyone in a position of power or influence outside the government can understand exactly what is transpiring. We do know that almost 12 Trillion dollars of stimulus by the FED over last two years has left the FED with huge overvalued assets on its books.
Well Happy Holidays to all and looking forwards to the New Year.
